Innovative development of power engineering enterprises based on cyclically oriented foresight and SWOT-analysis

The aim of the article. This article deals with analysis of influence that the formed groups of factors have on the country energy system. Much attention is given to the description of the expert estimation method, which was used in order to switch from the analysis of monotonous processes to analysis of nonlinear phenomena and SWOT-analysis that combined factors of influence on the direction of action and gave the opportunity to evaluate the degree of influence and the vulnerability of groups of factors.The results of the analysis. The research was carried out in the following order: selection of experts with the appropriate level of knowledge in the subject area; formulation of research objectives (whichshould resolve the problem); developing of questionnaires for its usability experts; work with the experts (a process is developed in the survey form); statistical processing of the data survey; identifying the most significant impacts within the subject; formation of matrix to determine the degree of influence that the factors have on the subject functioning; re-work with experts regarding the evaluation of the influence factors; mathematical processing of numerical values results that the influence factors have on the subject functioning; clarification of individual values if necessary; completing of dataset; formation of conclusions regarding the impacts and groups.It is important to mention among weaknesses the high level of energy losses in production and transportation, which indicates a systemic problem of grid improvement. Another important factor today is a significant level of depreciation of fixed assets in the energy sector, which is characteristic for the entire industry of Ukraine.Regarding capabilities, it is necessary for individuals involved in taking management decisions to consider high value when experts evaluate the factor of diversifying energy import, while the least important factor is a relatively high potential of renewable energy. Regarding renewable energy, as part of the electricity system, it should be noted that the decision of experts is caused by the current country needs in energy supply. However, the reality of energy supply situation proves that after some time this factor will become of a great importance. This expert decision is mainly caused by the exploitation of existing energy infrastructure and long-term perspective is not fully considered.Conclusions and directions of further researches. The article draws attention to a threat concerned with interruptions in energy delivery (import), which is strongly influenced by the quality of energy supply and reliability of the energy system. The least threatening factor considered is non-market pricing mechanisms in the energy sector, due to a fairly well-functioning financial system in the national energy sector.