Challenging the Future. Implications of the Horizon Scan 2050 for the Dutch Top-Industry Innovation Policy

The ‘Horizon Scan 2050’-project identified so-called ‘Signals for Change’, i.e. developments that might affect the existing visions on the Grand (Societal) Challenges that the Dutch society faces. Using a long time horizon, various developments within societal domains were examined for the signals. The method used was a combination of analyzing signals from different sources and elaborating them in a creative and interactive manner into inspiring images of the future. To determine the possible impact of the results of ‘Horizon Scan 2050’, we compared the outcomes of the study to the current Dutch innovation policy, which focuses on supporting the so-called Top Industries. The overall impression is that the choice of Top-Industries is more a reflection of the current competencies of the Dutch economy than it is of its future potential, that High-Tech and Life Sciences and Health are the most robust (future-proof) Top-Industries, and that the Creative industry is a promising newcomer.