METHODOLOGY FOR TERRITORIAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN AGRICULTURE IN PANEVĖŽYS DISTRICT, LITHUANIA

“BalticClimate ? Baltic Challenges and Chances for regional and development generated by Climate Change” project is one of The Baltic Sea Region programme 2007?2013projects It helps region municipalities to deal with the climate change issue in a cooperative, integrated and sustainable way. Within the project the complex methodology of adaptation to climate change was created. One of the most important steps of methodology was development of the brand new attitude to territorial vulnerability assessment. Methodological approach based on GIS layers intersections and simple classification of vulnerability categories. The methodology was prepared Panevėžys district, one of the most agrarian areas in Lithuania. 4 general layers sensitive to climate change (typical to all municipalities) were identified: landscape elements, soil typologies, relief slopes and hydrological network; and subject to the municipal peculiarities, specific layers were identified (in this case soil fertility). The following 30-year time periods were identified to assess the municipal territorial vulnerability to climate change: 2011?2040, 2041?2070 and 2071?2100. It was found that Panevėžys district municipality is expected to be the most vulnerable in the time period of 2070?2100.