THE EFFECT OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS ON CROP YIELDS AND STATISTICAL MODEL OF YIELD FORECASTING

The study of the effects of meteorological factors on crop production and the development of models for forecasting the yield have been the concern of agro meteorologists worldwide. This research work focuses on wheat production in two zones with diverse climate conditions in Albania.The most important factors that directly affect crop production are changes of climate conditions. Furthermore, wheat as part of this crop production has been attracted particular attention worldwide. In this framework, we decided to study, evaluate and estimate wheat production gain two weeks before harvest, based on the most favorable model for the conditions in Albania. There are a number of models and approaches considered from different researchers in the past and nowadays. All of them have their advantages and disadvantages and moreover different behaviors towards climate conditions of our country. Hence, after a thorough evaluation, we have chosen the best appropriate model and analyzed its results. This model is based on the multiple equations of regression, which consider all the climate elements. In addition, as the model requires, we have chosen the most significant periods for this plant, and evaluated it for the two most diverse climatic changes regions, but with the highest productivity in the country. The regions considered are, respectively, the Korça region, located on the South ? East part of Albania, and it is known for its favorable agro-climate characteristics, and the Lushnja region, located on West part of Albania, known as lowland country.