A COGNITIVE MODEL OF UKRAINE’S TRANSPORT SYSTEMJournal: University Economic Bulletin. Collection of scientific articles of scientists and post-graduate students (Vol.1, No. 25)
Publication Date: 2015-03-25
Authors : Kudrytska Natalia;
Page : 61-66
Keywords : transport system; strategic management; cognitive modeling;
The article deals with the problem of studying Ukraine’s transport system, whose development is going on in an economic environment, characterized by a high degree of volatility and uncertainty. For this purpose, the author proposed to apply the cognitive approach, allowing to carry out a qualitative analysis of semistructured complex economic system (which is the transport system of Ukraine), in the form of a cognitive graph or cognitive map. Formulated a fuzzy cognitive map of the functioning of the transport system, taking into account the major trends and problems of its development, which will translate the control object in the target state, i.e. maximizing profits at a sufficient level of environmental safety. In order to implement the map, the author developed a set of mathematical-economic models, namely, those of evaluation of the competitiveness of the transport industry (with the help of the integral index and using the probabilistic approach); ranking Ukraine’s regions in terms of transport provision and innovative development using hierarchical cluster analysis and Harrington’s desirability function; determining the cost of transportation of goods by road, using the tools of the theory of fuzzy sets; determining tariffs for container transportation of goods by rail; estimating the coefficient of discounted cash flows of the investment projects, depending on the discount rate and the number of the year; selection of optimal investment projects using linear and non-linear programming and the method of sequential analysis of options; and renovation of vehicles using the theory of Markov processes.
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