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FORECASTING THE VOLUME OF INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS SALES ON THE BASIS OF EXTRAPOLATION METHODS AND EXPERT JUDGEMENT

Journal: University Economic Bulletin. Collection of scientific articles of scientists and post-graduate students (Vol.1, No. 23)

Publication Date:

Authors : ; ;

Page : 34-40

Keywords : volume of innovative products sales; forecasting adaptive methods; expert judgment; innovation activity of enterprises;

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Abstract

The subject of the work is to analyze the results of enterprises innovative activity in Ukraine. The aim is to implement a forecasting indicator - volume of innovative products sales in Ukraine and to obtain the results of the forecast. This will contribute to the development of effective innovation strategies, their implementation in practice of the enterprises. Methodology of the work. The article used the adaptive prediction methods and expert opinions. Results. Identified the need to perform time series forecasting through a combination of statistical methods and expert judgment. Especially important is the combination when there are sharp changes in the economy through unforeseen events (crises, changes in the political or economic policy, etc). Using of expert judgment improves the accuracy of the forecast. During the combination of extrapolation estimates and expert projections it is necessary to consider different aspects. For example, the credibility for the estimates are different, the trust may change when changing the value of the bias. The most important thing in the combination is that the credibility of the combined forecast should be at maximum level. First of all, the solution of this problem is associated with the formulation of extreme problems. It should be possible to build an adaptive mechanism, which will give the opportunity to have the combined projected trajectory together with the required property. Analysis of the calculation results shows that the estimation of prognosis depends on the level of trust. If ? = 0,85, predictive estimate of transient process quickly get trends, which are provided by the experts, and if ? = 0,95, extrapolating trend dominates in the combined trajectory. The prognosis estimations depend on the ?. Therefore, the special attention should be paid to determining the value of ?. Scope of the results: the management of enterprises, the formation and implementation of development strategies, the formation of the major directions of the state innovation policy. Conclusions. In the future we can expect the reduction in the amount of innovative products sales. Adaptability combined model allows to effectively implement the procedure for obtaining prognosis estimations for future periods in which the trends change is expected. For the formation of an effective innovation strategies managers need to know the results of the forecast. It will give the opportunity to implement strategies in the practice of enterprises. The results of the forecast will contribute to the creation of effective innovation strategies and their implementation in the activity of enterprises. The forecasting system must be one of the most important places during the creation of measures to implement the strategy.

Last modified: 2016-07-24 19:51:54