Economicmathematical modeling of the goods range of small enterprise

Entrepreneurship is an important sector of national economy which quickly reacts to market tendencies. One of the main moments of the enterprises functioning is formation of the optimum product range which can be determined by the ABC analysis mechanism. Object of study. Private enterprise which carries out production, trade-intermediary, commercial and economic activity for the purpose of profit (income) receiving. Subject of study. The range of goods. The aim of the study. The analysis of the goods range, the definition of the range, which provides greater profitability. Creation of the economic and mathematical models for analysis and future demand forecasting on the example of private enterprise. Research methods. ABC analysis for enterprise resources classification according to their importance in terms of sales. The analysis of commodity group and creation of future demand forecasting model by means of economic-mathematical modeling. In this article the range of dairy products is analyzed. The ABC analysis is carried out, products which have the greatest share in the enterprise commodity turnover are defined. The quantity and share of items are counted in each group. Group A and B - 2 items (22,2% each) and group C - 5 items (55,6%). The obtained data is applied to the further commodity group analysis and creation of future demand forecasting model. Economic-mathematical models: linear, power law and exponential, are developed for goods which take the largest share in turnover (Selianske Ekstra ?Okhtyrskyi smak? butter packed 0.2 kg). Models are tested for adequacy using peaks and series criteria, R/S-criteria and Durbin Watson criteria. Determination coefficient, Fischer criteria and Student's t-test (settlement and critical) are defined for a quality assessment of the received models. By the results of check it is expedient to apply exponential model which is adequate to experimental data for the further research, on its basis it is possible to carry out the economic analysis and to find the forecast value. The results of the carried-out classification by means of ABC analysis, allow the person, who is making the decision, to influence the income of the enterprise. This method is appropriate to apply to other companies. The exponential calculated model allows to predict various processes: in research of goods and services (per capita) needs, in research of resource efficiency, etc.