RISK SITUATIONS MODELING AT THE INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY MANAGEMENT IN THE UNCERTAINTY ?ONDITIONS

All business processes are under influence of indefinite factors; therefore, making decision in the conditions of uncertainty takes place there. The reason of it is an increase of complication in the decision making process, its dependence on previous and subsequent decisions, reasons for their making and consequences. All this considerably influences the necessity of raising the decision making quality. It is necessary to take into account the conditions of uncertainty and risks, analyze them, and develop models and methods of making decisions. Topicality of this problem is also increased by growth of instability in economic relations that increases the probability of making groundless and unreliable decisions and, in its turn, results in the growth of risks. During decision making in the conditions of uncertainty and risks, the principle complication in choice of a decision is caused by the ignorance of the veritable state of environment in production objects functioning. Criteria of Wald, Savage, Gurvic and Laplace, the same as criteria of the expected efficiency value of the determined size and the dilatation extent, and also subjective attitude to making decision on the risks, take into account the uncertainty factor by realization of hypothesis about environmental conduct. The use of the indicated criteria is only provided by the method of rational analysis of uncertainty, while account of risks and modeling of possible development situations are required for making adequate management decisions. The formalized method of risks account and modeling of innovative activity development situation is suggested. It is based on the integral use of the decision tree and Bayesian functions. For transformation of strategic co-operations to the statistical decisions an experiment is used, which purpose is obtaining additional information about strategies of external environment and clarifying the posterior probabilities. After the experiment, the possibility of determining a great number of the best decision and choice functions appears. This choice is accompanied with the risks elements, which, in their turn, are determined by functions of the environment state. A great number of the environment states must be known to determine the possible functions of expedient decision making, to use the Bayesian functions during the strategies determination. If a prior distribution of environment states in unknown, the optimum strategy is the strategy based in the use of minimax functions. The optimum strategy of management is based on generalizing the theory of Neumann-Morgenstern utility and on eventual co-operations of the two participants. For finding Bayesian function of decision, concerning some prior distribution, it is necessary to obtain discrete strategies of management from the statistical matrix form of presentation, taking into account randomization of external environment state. During the use of the linear programming apparatus, where limitations are written down as equalities, it is possible to find the randomized minimax function of decision making. It is one of the methods to reduce calculation difficulties in comparison with the determined approach. In the conditions, when the environment state, in the result of the conducted experiment, can’t be simply determined, it is necessary to accept Bayesian approach of making decision in the conditions of risks, based on Bayesian formula. It allows performing the total account of uncertainty through probabilistic and causal relations between variables. The suggested mechanism is approved for the analysis of strategies for the enterprises economic development, by statistical information processing and obtaining the exact results.