COGNITIVE MODELING IN THE ENTERPRISE’S ECONOMIC POTENTIAL FORECASTING

Background. The offered research is devoted to the unexplored and actual problem of the enterprise's economic potential forecasting. The resolution of this issue by using the method of cognitive modeling is proved in the article. Review of scientific sources devoted to this subject shows, that the complexity of the structure and internal interaction determine the change in economic potential in the future. Therefore it is reasonable previously to forecast the enterprise's economic potential value, taking into account the interaction of its components and to avoid faults and unnecessary costs today and in the future. In the economic-mathematical forecasting of the enterprise's economic potential the variety of methods is used. Each forecasting method has its advantages and disadvantages. The usage if the simulation method is prospective. Therefore, analysis of the existing modeling types and forecasting the enterprise's economic potential is certainly relevant, and form the basis of investigation's aim. Results. The existing system modeling methods are classified in the following classification features: level of fullness, depending on the bearer's type, signature of the model, the nature of system processes, the presentation of the object. Their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. The central aspect of this research is to prove the usage of the cognitive modeling method to the enterprise's economic potential forecasting. The task of the enterprise's economic potential forecasting based on the cognitive modeling can be divided into two types: static and dynamic. Static analysis, or impact assessment ? is the economic potential analysis by studying its structure and interaction, which allows to identify the most important components, to estimate their interaction. The investigation of the components' interaction allows to estimate the distribution of effects on cognitive map, that changes their state (value). Dynamic analysis underlying the generation of the enterprise's economic potential's possible scenarios over time (pulsed simulation). Conclusions. This investigation, according to the author, can become the component of the enterprise's economic potential forecasting methodological approach and developing of the effective management decisions.