APLIKASI PERSAMAAN DEFERENSIAL BIASA MODEL EKSPONENSIAL DAN LOGISTIK PADA PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK KOTA SURABAYA

This research was aimed to describe the differential equations application of population growth model of Surabaya City that is exponential model and logistic model and determine the best model between exponential and logistic models for estimating the number of population in Surabaya. The method used in this research is descriptive research with the qualitative approach which is conducted by observations and analyzes of the subject. The subject of this research was the population data of Surabaya city in 2011 to 2015. To know the accuracy and validity of the research data the researcher used triangulation. The triangulation used Department of Population and Civil Registration (Dispendukcapil) data and Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in Surabaya. The results were obtained an exponential model in an equation form ????(????)=3.024.321 ????^(−0.0676)????. While for logistic models were obtained two equations ????=3.388.807/(0,1204)(0,.05682)????+1. The results also showed that from two models of population growth obtained that a more accurate model for estimating the population of Surabaya city was the logistic model.