Effect of Investor Sentiment on Future Returns in the Nigerian Stock Market

Study investigated the effect of investor sentiment on future returns in the Nigerian stock market for a period covering first quarter of 2008 to fourth quarter of 2015.The OLS regression and granger causality techniques were employed for data analyses. The results showed that (1) investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on stock market returns even after control for fundamentals such as Industrial production index, consumer price index and Treasury bill rate; (2) there is a uni-directional causality that runs from change in investor sentiment (?CCI) to stock market returns (Rm). Derived finding showed that the inclusion of fundamentals increased the explanatory power of investor sentiment from 3.96% to 33.05%, though at both level, investor sentiment (?CCI) has low explanatory power on stock market returns. The study posits existence of a dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and the behaviour of stock future returns in Nigeria such that higher sentiment concurrently leads to higher stock prices. Udoka Bernard Alajekwu* | Cyprian Okey Okoro | Dr. Michael Chukwumee Obialor | Prof. N. S. Ibenta"Effect of Investor Sentiment on Future Returns in the Nigerian Stock Market" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-1 | Issue-5 , August 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd2256.pdf http://www.ijtsrd.com/management/marketing-management/2256/effect-of-investor-sentiment-on-future-returns--in-the-nigerian-stock-market/udoka-bernard-alajekwu