North Korea’s Nuclear Behavior: Future of Global Non-Proliferation Regime

The Relationship between the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the international non-proliferation regimes presents an interesting case study. The DPRK had joined the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a NonNuclear Weapon State (NNWS), in 1985. It also entered into a comprehensive safeguards agreement with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in 1992. Later, DPRK's comfort level with the parameters, set by in-vogue international non-proliferation regime, eroded incrementally as it began to perceive that the framework was incompatible with its national security concerns. Therefore, it decided to go ahead for developing its nuclear weapons program. However, before doing so, it opted to withdraw from its agreement from the IAEA in 1994 and later from the NPT in 20031• It was a well thought out option selection by DPRK, as compared to adhering to the NPT and developing nuclear weapons clandestinely. Walking away from the NPT was aimed at getting rid of perpetual pangs of political baggage which it would have had to endure had it chosen to continue playing hide and seek with the international non-proliferation regime while developing its nuclear weapons. However, a number of other bilateral and multi-lateral agreements, protocols and understandings pertaining to DPRK's nuclear matters still remain in place, especially between the DPRK and the US, between North and South Korea and between North Korea and IAEA (which North Korea is often accused of violating). DPRK is also blamed for exiting the NPT lawfully, and hence this exit is perceived by some countries/entities as unlawful and void. On its part, DPRK maintains that it lawfully exited the NPT and is not in violation of any of its international obligations. Never ending battle of wits is in between the international non-proliferation regime and North Korea in the form of a vicious cycle of sanctions and nuclear and missile tests. There is no ongoing diplomatic engagement as the "Six-Party Talks" stand suspended since April 2009. The strategy of sanctions may have already hit a point of diminishing returns in the context of dissuading DPRK from its nuclear and missile programs, but its continuation is certain to precipitate a humanitarian crisis. At the same time, while pursuing its nuclear, missile and space programs, DPRK may be unwittingly advancing American strategic interests like positioning of Anti-Ballistic Missile {ABM) System and redeployment of American nukes in The Republic of Korea (RoK), which it withdrew in 19922• In all likelihood, the solution lies in engaging DPRK in meaningful talks aimed at addressing its security concerns. This paper examines DPRK's nuclear behavior and its likely impact on the international non-proliferation regime.