Forecasting of Cotton Production in Nagpur District of Maharashtra India

Agriculture is the backbone of India. Most of population of India’s livelihood depends on agriculture. Agricultural crop production depends on several factors including weather nutrients present in the soil, fertilizers used and others. Cotton is one of the most important fiber and cash crop of India. Cotton plays a dominant in the industrial and agricultural economy of the country. In this paper, we tried to forecast cotton production. The data on production, production area, temperature and rainfall for Nagpur district of Maharashtra in India during the year 2000 to 2018 is considered. For forecasting different statistical tools such as descriptive statistics, simple regression, multiple regression, ARIMA as well as ARIMAX model were used. The study reveals that for univariate time series model ARIMA (0, 1, 1) and for multivariate time series model. Arima (0, 1, 1) are the best fitted model.