MODELO PROSPECTIVO DEL SERVICIO DE TRANSPORTE AÉREO VERTICAL URBANO EN LA CIUDAD DE LIMA PARA EL DESARROLLO ESTRATÉGICO NACIONAL

As a result of the Final phase of mastery of strategic foresight for the national development taken in the de San Marcos Mayor University, I presented the thesis: Prospective Model of Vertical Air Trans-port Service in the City of Lima for the Peru National Strategic Development. Hoping to contribute to the Peruvian Government so that in the not-too-distant future the citizens can have a vertical take-off aircraft fleet with quantity and sufficient capacity to deal with demand in peace and emergencies time in case that these occur preventing chaos by natural disasters or human.The objective of this work is to forge a precedent for the help to apply the strategic foresight for na-tional development in the aeronautical sector in the Peru.The problem: How important is the future scenario related to the ability of the State's response to urban vertical air transport both in peacetime and in emergencies in the Metropolitan City of Lima?The present study was based on the use of the technique of data collection of the type of interviews open and closed to different groups of experts (aeronautical authorities, civil institutions: OSINERG-MIN, INDECI, Lima Municipality and expert pilots of helicopters.)The subsequent analysis using different prospective tools techniques such as Peter Schwartz, Fo-resight and Godet methods, which allowed the approach of potential scenarios and corresponding strategies for their achievement. The responses were evaluated and several matrixes related to different foresight tools, to identify the key variables.The key variables are related according to their importance and conflicts, the most relevant positive and negative most obsolete, that underlie the preparation of scenarios were identified.As a result were obtained four scenarios:1. Two Thumbs Up”: with the most optimal technology and sustainability promoted by the State and supported through the market.2. “Looking For”: the State gives the partial terms of facilitation for vertical air transport operation.3. “Helicopters Raca”: the State puts many barriers, but promotes tourism.4. “I Stay on Ground”: the State puts many barriers to the development of Urban Vertical Air Transport”.