Modelling Auto - Crash Cases in Osun State, Nigeria

This paper examines the best Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to study the trends of auto crash cases in Osun State and forecast beyond 2020 using thedata (2011 - 2020) obtained from Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC), Osun State. The Time Plot showed that there are no patterns in auto crash cases withthe mean of 262 auto crash cases monthly within the study years. The Auto Correlation Function (ACF) of the study data provide good indication of a non - stationary series. Furthermore, the model fit indicated that ARIMA (1,0,0) was the best applicable model selected for making the three years forecast ofabout 3100 in year 2021, 3129 in year 2022 and 3131 in year 2023of the expected auto crash casualties in Osun State which revealed an increase in deaths and injuriespredicted years of auto - crash cases.