ASSESSING AND PREDICTING DROUGHT VULNERABILITY OF JESSORE DISTRICT IN BANGLADESH WITH MARKOV CHAIN MODEL

The agricultural sector, which is crucial to the socioeconomic framework of Bangladesh, is particularly exaggerated with different natural calamities such as drought, flood, cyclone etc.Drought primarily arises from insufficient rainfall. Markov Chain model is employed to assess the probability of suffering sequences of wet and dry days in this field.The long-term fluctuations in rainfall and temperature patterns contribute the local and regional drought conditions, leading to failures in productive sectors and a decline in socioeconomic status. This study focused on monitoring and predicting agriculture drought probability by decade of Jessore district from the southwestern part of Bangladesh. The daily rainfall data of Jessore district from January 1961 to December 2020 is considered for investigation.