ORECASTING OF FATAL ALCOHOL POISONINGS RATE IN RUSSIAJournal: I.P. Pavlov Russian Medical Biological Herald (Vol.24, No. 4)
Publication Date: 2016-12-30
Authors : Y.E. Razvodovsky; V.Y. Smirnov; P.B. Zotov;
Page : 67-77
Keywords : time series; forecasting; fatal alcohol poisonings rate; Russia;
This article tests the possibility of forecasting of fatal alcohol poisonings rate in Russia using the analysis of time series from 1956 to 2013. The results from present study support the hypothesis that a change in the affordability of alcohol was the key determinant of dramatic fluctuations in the fatal alcohol poisonings rate in Russia during the last decades. Most visible effect of measures on restriction of alcohol's availability was during antialcohol campaign 1985-1988 and following the adoption of new antialcohol initiatives in 2005. This study highlighted the limitations associated with forecasting of fatal alcohol poisonings rate using extrapolation of time series. Adoption of new antialcohol initiatives in 2005 appeared as an intervention witch effected the trends in fatal alcohol poisonings rate. This suggests that different kinds of social interventions hamper reliable forecasting of fatal alcohol poisonings rate.
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