FORECASTING OF ECONOMIC GROWTH INDEXES IN A REGION OF RUSSIA (CASE STUDY IN THE ARKHANGELSK REGION)

The article is devoted to economic and mathematical analysis of price dynamics for Russian and foreign pulp products. Price sampling for pulp is made on the base of the Russian and foreign statistical data. Trends and cycles for price time-series are ascertained. As the result of the research work the structure of the price time-series for pulp and paper products were determined and trend and cycle patterns studied. The starting point for long-term rising trends of all price time-series is the year 2002. These trends are long-term and remain to the present moment. Price time-series trends growth rates were determined and cycle periods measured. Their duration is 11-14 quarters and they are proved to have matching structure and phase duration. The amplitude for the price time-series is calculated in absolute and relative measures. For all analyzed objects mid-range forecasts and models of extended forecasts are made on the base of the tested and most adequate models. A hypothesis, for such rich forest regions as the Arkhangelsk region, the price of the world market for pulp is the main indicator of the region‟s economic situation in the near-term outlook is made.