The Application of Scenario Based SLEUTH Model for Urban Growth Simulation )Case Study: Tabriz Metropolitan(

Five urban growth factors, propagation, propagation, birth, gradient and gravity of the road had values 26, 40, 38, 76 and 89 respectively in 2016. Growth coefficients determined According to historical data, urban development in the region was surrounded by urban development through the establishment of a coefficient gravity road. Compared to other cities, the slope resistance did not have such a great impact on urban development, but in Tabriz, topography is a very important factor in limiting urban development. Future urban growth patterns are expected by 2040 with the design of three scenarios, historical scenarios, temperate environmental scenarios and tough environmental scenarios. The results show according to first scenario showed that by the year 2040, 3241 hectares will be added to urban land, and a huge amount of gardens and lands will be destroyed. The results of the second scenario showed that 1670 hectares of valuable land could remain intact. But in the third scenario, not only a large amount of valuable land was protected, but in accordance with the intensive city approach, city executives were helped to provide urban services to citizens.The results of the simulation of the physical development of the city using these three scenarios showed that the Sleuth model can be a useful tool for city managers who can easily understand the implications of future development patterns.Based on the facts and analyzes, theresults show that a moderate environmental scenario is very useful for the physical development of Tabriz metropolitan.