The Study of the Ratio of Income and Expenditure of Households in Ukraine by the Method of Point Mapping

In connection with the transition to market energy prices and reform of housing and communal services in Ukraine, indicators of household income and expenses act as guidelines in setting tariffs for housing and communal sphere, as well as subsidies to citizens, which increases the relevance of the study of their dynamics. Statistical data for the period from 1999 to 2018 demonstrate the dynamics of the ratio of income and expenses, which is not monotonous, the change of trends of which cannot be explained by certain quantitatively measured factors and described by traditional methods of mathematical analysis. The method of point mappings is applied, which allows, using the so-called Poincare sections, to establish a relationship between the discrete values of the studied indicator, which is taken as the share of expenses in household incomes, in the form of the geometric location of the points. Each point of schedule displays the position of the indicator in magnitude, vector and rate of change in this year compared to the previous one. The resulting spiral chart demonstrates a positive decrease in the share of expenses in household income in the process of improving the socio-economic situation in Ukraine from 2000 to 2007, a change the vector of the indicator to increasing in 2008 – the first year of the global financial and economic crisis. Then it returns to an improvement in the expense-income ratio after overcoming the crisis, a new deterioration in 2014-2015 due to the armed conflict in the Donbass. The highest value of the share of expenditures in household income in this period is gradually decreasing as the socio-economic situation in the country stabilizes. Generally, the trajectory of the change in the indicator of the share of expenditures in household income over the past 10 years makes three turns of the spiral. They are forming three regions of attraction of the indicator values, which can be considered as attractor areas of the internal self-organization of the process of payment preferences of the population with an obvious positive tendency to decrease it. The investigated nature of the factors of socio-economic and the military-political situation in Ukraine, which affect the change in the share of expenditures in household incomes, makes it possible to make a reasonable forecast of trends in the indicator for the next period. That gives reason to increase the validity of the adopted of socio-economic indicators in the next annual budget of the country.