Conventional Modeling for Forecasting Annual Rainfall in Chennai City

This research work deals with the forecasting of annual rainfall of Chennai city, India using conventional and computational models. Chennai is one of the most populous metropolitan city in India the knowledge of extreme precipitation in advance helps the disaster management for the control of floods and droughts. For this purpose, the annual rainfall of Chennai is modeled by filtering the white noise and then the smoothened data series were fed into the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting. The experimental result shows that the conventional ARIMA model gives better accuracy. The error measure indicates the proposed model's performance accuracy.