DIAGNOSTICS OF TAX REVENUES OF LOCAL BUDGETS UNDER CONDITIONS OF DECENTRALIZATION AND MARITAL LAW IN UKRAINE

Introduction. The existing domestic system of local finances requires improvement to align with the objectives of financial decentralization and to adopt the standards and its direction towards compliance with the standards and practices of leading European countries. Local budgets must be transformed into catalysts for socio-cultural and economic progress of regions, thereby ensuring an increase in the well-being of the local population and economic growth of the state. However, achieving these objectives is nearly impossible in conditions of limited financial resources of local authorities and low financial autonomy of territorial communities. Thus, it is crucial to analyse the revenue sources of local budgets, particularly focusing on their main source of formation - local and national taxes and fees. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyse and forecast tax revenues to local budgets to strengthen the financial autonomy of territorial communities in the context of decentralization and the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Materials and methods. The study was based on the provisions of modern financial science on the issues of financial independence of territorial communities and increasing tax revenues to local budgets. The source base of the study is Ukrainian legislation, scientific periodicals, official websites of ministries and departments of Ukraine. To estimate tax revenues from local taxes and personal income tax to local budgets of Ukraine for future time periods, the article uses the FORECAST.ETS function in Microsoft Excel, which allows forecasting using the exponential smoothing method to calculate weighted average values of indicators. Results. Analysis of trends in local budget revenues for the period of 2012–2023 indicates a significant increase in tax revenues from both national and local taxes. However, the results do not always indicate qualitative changes in local government financing, since inflationary processes often influenced the growth, especially in the crisis years of the war outbreak and the full-scale Russian invasion (2014 and 2022). In the structure of tax revenues to local budgets of Ukraine, the largest share falls on the personal income tax (PIT), which accounted for 66.6% of tax revenues in 2023. The second largest is the single tax with a share of 12.8% (UAH 55.8 billion). Corporate profit tax does not have a significant weight in tax revenues to the budgets of territorial communities and in 2023 accounted for 4% of the overall structure of tax revenues.