FORECAST OF PANCREATIC NECROSIS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF DESTRUCTIVE PANCREATITIS

The results of the study of indicators of blood amylase, Troy in the first days after the beginning of the destructive pancreatitis in 213 patients (538 studies) in order to predict the volume of necrosis of the pancreas. Revealed that less than 116 IU / L predicted widespread necrosis and focal above. Predictive accuracy of 62%. A more accurate prediction surround necrosis possible using models factors amylases, total protein and the amount of stab neutrophils. Relationship between them and the amount of necrosis described by the equation: 1.3754 ? 0.0013551 * amylase + 0.040751 * number of band neutrophils ? 0.06078 * level of total protein.