ANALYZES OF STATE BUDGET FORECASTING ERRORS AND ISSUES OF FORECASTING ACCURACY

In our paper, we made a review of forecasting methods and concepts related to state budget, tested two proposed hypotheses, and found the evidence to support them. For this, we used as a sample the state budget data for Uzbekistan for the period from 2007 to 2013. First, we found that the difference between forecasted data and actual data is high but when corrected budget estimates are used based on current changes the corrected forecast gets closer to actual data. Second, we found that forecasts on state expenditures have less error than forecasts for state revenues.