Forecasting Biomass Loss and Carbon Released to the Atmosphere as a Result of Habitat Conversion of Eastern Selous-Niassa TFCA

Terrestrial climate change predictions use various models that are based on atmospheric parameters combined with projected carbon emission scenarios. Increased levels of carbon emissions into the atmosphere are accelerated by human activities and are the main reason of climate change (CC). CC threatens networks of protected areas (PAs) and forced many species out of PAs. Unfenced PAs gives species opportunity to migrate from one PA to another or other unprotected areas to sustain their climatic niche. Many PAs in SADC countries including transfrontier conservation areas (TFCA) are unfenced; hence, connectivity of PAs uses corridors. However, many of these corridors are unprotected and advocacies adaptation of reserved fauna and flora under CC. This paper explains the less known amount of biomass loss and carbon released to the atmosphere as result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous – Niassa TFCA which connecting the two PAs of Tanzania and Mozambique. Specifically, the study predicts amount of biomass loss, amount of carbon released to the atmosphere and amount of conservation profit disposed as a result of habitat conversion from 2015 to 2035. Existing data on spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) of eastern corridor of Selous – Niassa TFCA from 1986 – 2016 was analysed and used to forecast LULC from 2015 to 2035 by using CA-Markov model. The forecasted LULC from 2015 to 2035 was analysed to get intended results. The results revealed that, an average amount of 29559.8 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) loss annually from 2015 to 2035. Consequently, average amount of 40217.2 tons of carbon (above ground + below ground + deadwood) released to the atmosphere annually from 2015 to 2035 equivalent to US$ 160868.6 per annum if REDD+ implemented. The study concludes that, there is a need to include virgin corridors into core PAs network or formulation of sustainable conservation strategies that will consider climatic niche of both flora and fauna without compromising livelihoods of corridor dwellers.