DIAGNOSTICS OF CRISIS SITUATION IN THE TRADE INDUSTRY OF KHARKIV REGION

A comprehensive study of the nature of influence of macrolevel factors on the trade development in the country, influences the formation of the general anti-crisis strategy of trade enterprises. The whole complex of tools for further forecasting and assessment of crisis factors at mesolevel and macrolevel depends on its results. Trade as an important sector of the economy of the Kharkov region requires a special, systematic analysis in order to identify a potential crisis state and to develop preventive anti-crisis measures. To trace the dynamics of the main socio-economic indicators of the trade industry development at macrolevel and mesolevel and to provide a qualitative assessment of the probability of a crisis situation in the trade industry of Kharkiv region. To determine a set of key criteria for the complex assessment of the probability of a crisis situation in the region, the approaches of the world's leading financial institutions to this assessment have been systematized. The assessment was based on an expert method which made it possible to determine the factors that directly influence the formation of the anti-crisis policy of the region and the strategy for the enterprise. The results of the study allowed to identify three key groups of criteria: «Business Development Factors», «Advantages of the Region» and «Level of Adverse Regional Conditions», each of which is formed on the basis of its own system of indicators, taking into account the specifics of the trade industry. To identify the most acute problems in the socio-economic development of Kharkiv region, there was applied Ishikawa diagram which is a tool for the analysis of cause and effect relationships between various factors and the result. The results of a qualitative assessment of the probability of a crisis in the trade industry of Kharkiv region in 2014–2018 are indicate that the probability of a crisis in the trade industry of the region is rated as average, but compared with the rate in 2010–2014 it has been increased and approaching borders with a high probability of crisis. The key tasks for management at trade enterprises should be to activate efforts to strengthen internal crisis stability.