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Macroeconomic risks of Ukraine's budget policy under the crisis

Journal: Bulletin of Postgraduate education: collection of scientific papers. Series "Social and Behavioral Sciences; Management and Administration" (psychological, economy, public administration). Category «B» (Vol.16, No. 45)

Publication Date:

Authors : ;

Page : 253-266

Keywords : budget policy; National budget; macroeconomic risks; investment risks; demographic risks; migration risks; debt risks; GDP; redistribution of GDP; economic crisis; State debt; budget deficit;

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The article researches the macroeconomic risks of budget policy formation and implementation in the current crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The article examines their preconditions and consequences for the socio-economic development of the state. Analysis of the state budget for 2021, debt burden and deficit, as well as forecasts of experts of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank on the development of the global economy allowed the author to identify the following main risks: investment, demographic, migration, debt and centralized GDP distribution. The risks of destabilization of the budget system are due to some of the highest in the history of Ukraine debt repayment and servicing, unjustified growth of social benefits, negative foreign trade balance and unfavorable external business environment to mobilize the planned budget revenues and taxes. Debt risks and risks associated with excessive centralization of GDP redistribution pose a significant threat. It is substantiated that the indicators of the state budget for 2021, calculated on the basis of overly optimistic expectations for real GDP growth in 2021, with a steady downward trend compared to 2019, significantly weaken the financial security of the state. The ratio of the state budget deficit to GDP in 2021 at 5,5% and public debt at 58% of GDP confirms the author's conclusions on the growing impact of debt risks on the country's budget policy. In turn, the planned distribution of GDP through the state budget at 24,1% minimizes incentives for economic growth, as the share of profits in the state budget does not contribute to attracting investment in the economy and the introduction of innovative technologies. The author formulated conclusions on the negative impact of certain risks on the budget policy of Ukraine and the need to take measures to prevent and minimize them in order to overcome the economic and social crisis

Last modified: 2021-05-20 19:19:49