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Modeling and Analysis of Influenza A H1N1 Outbreaks in India

Journal: International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (Vol.5, No. 3)

Publication Date:

Authors : ;

Page : 1166-1170

Keywords : ARIMA; case fatality rate (CFR); contagious; forecasts; Influenza A (H1N1); predictive tool;

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Influenza A H1N1 incidence in India, which is a highly contagious acute respiratory disease in humans caused by type A influenza virus. This study employs retrospective comparative study of the data from National Centre for Disease Control CDC yearly reports from April 2010 to April 2019. The case fatality rates of Influenza A H1N1 incidence in India was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA models in order to build a predictive tool for Influenza A H1N1 surveillance. Clearly from the study, lack of rainfall spread the virus more efficiently and Maharashtra stood first in total number of cases and deaths of Influenza A H1N1 whereas Lakshadweep had no signs of disease. Further, number of Cases were reported in the year 2015 i.e. 28 and 25 of cases have been reported in 2017 when compared to ten years data. ARIMA 2, 1, 3 model was selected for its minimum value of normalized BIC, MAPE and good R Square among all other models. The model forecasted the decrease in case fatality rate of Influenza A H1N1 for next 10years. Thus, results indicate that, ARIMA models provide a means to better understand Influenza A H1N1 incidence yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level. Stavelin Abhinandithe K | Sathya Velu R | Dr. Madhu B | Sahana S | Sowmyavalli R |Bibin John | Dr. Balasubramanian S "Modeling and Analysis of Influenza A H1N1 Outbreaks in India" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-3 , April 2021, URL: Paper URL:

Last modified: 2021-06-10 15:46:40