Implementation of investment projects based on the principles of partnership between government, business and society in Ukraine: modern trends and development forecasting

The article is devoted to the analysis of the current state and prospects for the development of the partnership of government, business and society on the basis of public-private partnership (PPP) in Ukraine for the period 2024-2030, in particular in the context of the country's post-war recovery. The paper examines the key trends in the implementation of PPP contracts for the period from 2018 to 2023, reveals serious problems in the implementation of projects, in particular, a decrease in the number of implemented contracts and an increase in the share of unimplemented and terminated contracts. The influence of military actions on the PPP implementation process is analyzed and the need to adapt management mechanisms to new conditions is emphasized. Special attention is paid to the role of PPPs in the recovery of critical sectors such as education, health care, transport and others, as well as opportunities to attract investments. Three main scenarios for the development of the partnership between government, business and society for the coming years are considered: optimistic, basic and pessimistic. It was determined that the PPP has significant potential for positive change, but success will depend on economic stability, political decisions and the effectiveness of legislative changes. For the purpose of more accurate forecasting, the Monte Carlo method was applied, which made it possible to obtain detailed forecasts of PPP development under three scenarios. The simulation results showed that the optimistic scenario predicts a high potential for project development and a significant amount of investment, while the pessimistic scenario reflects possible difficulties and limited growth. The importance of strategic planning and adaptation to possible changes for effective management of investment projects on the basis of partnership between government, business and society in conditions of uncertainty is justified.