Calculation of GNP as a source of income

The relevance of the topic is manifested by ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and foreign creditors on the issue of debt restructuring, accompanied by the law, adopted on July 18, 2024, by Ukraine's parliament, allowing the government to suspend foreign debt payments, like by numerous continuous lawsuits against the government of Argentina: in both cases, GDP-linked warrants in general, and GDP calculation, in particular, are the subject matter. With objective limitations of GDP as a measure of economic development being discussed in numerous scientific papers, starting from the author of the concept of GDP Simon Kuznets, this study focuses on the cases of intentional manipulation of data to prevent (or diminish) losses or gain profit. The study aims to research political (as distinct from methodological) approaches to the design of state-contingent debt instruments and risks associated with GDP miscalculation on the example of two case studies (circulation of Argentinian and Ukrainian GDP-linked warrants). The purpose is realized through the application of general scientific and specialized methods. Historical research and comparative analysis were applied to identify similarities and differences in background, terms, and conditions of GDP-linked warrants, issued by the governments of Argentina and Ukraine. Case studies were undertaken to examine the problems connected with their emission and circulation. Qualitative analysis techniques were used to identify problems facing both issuers and holders of warrants. Prima facie until now there are no publications on the topic. As primary sources in most cases are unavailable (due to the confidential character of negotiations), the research was based on the experts' opinions on some occasions. The paper seems to be of interest to investors who have already bought or are planning to buy GDP-linked warrants like the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable participants. It should also appeal to international financial institutions, substantiating the pressing need to develop a standardized term sheet for the emission of value recovery instruments.