Status and forecast of changes in areas under vegetable crops and drip irrigation in the Republic of Crimea

The purpose of the research was to assess the current state of vegetable growing in the Republic of Crimea to determine vegetable demand and to calculate the prospects for the development of vegetable growing considering the current economic conditions and changes in the area irrigated by drip systems in order to increase vegetable production, reduce its production cost through efficient use of water resources, preserve and improve fertility of reclaimed lands. Statistical data on the area and productivity of vegetable crops, the dynamics of mineral fertilizer application for vegetables and the number of sprinkler equipment in 2015–2023 in the Republic of Crimea were used. The analysis of changes in the current state of the area cultivated for vegetable crops in the Republic of Crimea revealed a negative trend. During 2015–2023, there was a steady decrease in the area from 7.3 to 5.8 thousand hectares. Against this background, the volume of vegetable production varied from 173.0 to 204.8 thousand tons. At the same time, there has been a reduction in the number of sprinklers and installations from 556 in 2016 to 384 in 2023. There was instability in the amount of mineral fertilizers used for vegetable crops, so in 2020, 179 tons of mineral fertilizers were applied, and in 2023 this figure was 265 tons. The volume of vegetable products produced does not cover the needs of the population of the Republic of Crimea by an average of 61.46 thousand tons. Despite the Republic is a resort region, by the end of 2024, the needs of tourists during the resort season alone were not met by 740.1 thousand tons. However, our forecast shows that based on the available data, by 2030 the area under vegetable crop cultivation may decrease to 3.8 thousand hectares. At the same time, according to the forecast, the irrigated area equipped with drip irrigation may increase from 16.7 thousand hectares in 2023 to 22.1 thousand hectares by 2030, and to 29.5 thousand hectares by 2040. In this regard, it was proposed to allocate part of the newly introduced areas for cultivation of vegetable crops.