MANAGEMENT OF BUSINESS PROCESSES OF SHIPBUILDING AND SHIPREPAIR ENTERPRISES OF UKRAINE BASED ON THE SCENARIO APPROACH IN A PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY

Introduction. The shipbuilding industry is multifaceted and interdependent with various sectors of the country's economy. However, the formation of business processes in this industry is influenced by a number of global factors: social, technological, economic, environmental, political and military. Today's challenges and the current crisis make it impossible to manage business processes due to reliance on typical and usual methods of forecasting the future scenario of events, especially taking into account uncertainty. This situation prompts the search for suitable methods of managing business processes of shipbuilding and shiprepair enterprises of Ukraine based on a scenario approach. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study the general trends in the development of the shipbuilding and shiprepair industry of Ukraine by identifying the reasons for its decline, as well as studying the features of the use of the scenario approach in the management of business processes of shipbuilding and shiprepair enterprises of Ukraine in a period of uncertainty. Materials and methods. The materials of the research were the works of domestic and foreign authors who conduct their scientific and practical research in the study of the development of the shipbuilding and shiprepair industry of various countries of the world, as well as the use of the scenario approach in the management of business processes in order to improve their activities in a period of uncertainty. The following scientific methods were used in the research process: terminological analysis to clarify the content of the conceptual apparatus of the researched question; theoretical generalization and grouping to find the root causes of the decline of the shipbuilding industry of Ukraine; formalization, analysis and synthesis for the development of a business process management scheme for shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises based on a scenario approach; philosophical methodology that helped establish the relationship between science and practice; the informational approach as a fundamental methodology for the purpose of substantiating the informational and cognitive relationship of the research paradigm; logical generalization of results for formulating conclusions. Results. The scientific article defines the significance of the mutual influence of probable scenarios of the development of various situations due to the depth of the occurrence of risk, taking into account the issues of normalization of the functioning of water transport and its components in a rapidly developing environment at the global level. The deep causes of the decline of the shipbuilding and ship repair industry of Ukraine are grouped by studying the problems of development and functioning in the pre-war and war period, which shows the importance of forecasting critical and unpredictable situations. A scheme for managing business processes of shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises based on a scenario approach is proposed, taking into account the interpretation of the current state in relation to future events and the principles of risk management in the overall development strategy. Discussion. In further scientific research, it is proposed to focus attention on the structural analysis of the business processes of the shipyard with an in-depth study of the possibility of developing a scenario for the recovery of activity in the post-war period of Ukraine's development.