THE APPROACH TO THE REDISTRIBUTION OF ALLOCATIONS UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS ON THE DEFENSE PURCHASE OF MATERIAL RESOURCES

The article discusses one of the typical problems of the support system that occurs in the course of making managerial decisions on defense procurement of material resources in the daily practice of the management staff — fund managers. The problem is related to the need to reallocate allocations between the activities of budget programs (subprograms) for procurement of material resources and to select activities, the reduction of funding of which will have the least impact on the effectiveness of the program (subprogram) and minimize the risks of failure to implement the procurement program as a whole. To substantiate the options for possible redistribution of allocations and selection of the least risky option, the author proposes an approach using the statistical method of quantitative risk analysis based on the definition of two indicators: the probability of losses (damages) in case of reduction of funding for a program (subprogram) and the average value and range of fluctuations of these expected losses (damages). An example of using the proposed approach for two possible options for reducing the funding of a program (subprogram) between three potential groups of activities of this program is considered. It is proposed to summarize the calculations in a summary table, which is convenient for analysis and making the final decision at the appropriate management instance regarding the choice of the least risky option for reducing the financing of the program (subprogram) of procurement of material resources. It is noted that the approach under consideration can be extended to the situation of more than two alternative options for reducing the funding of a program (subprogram) and for more than three potential groups of activities selected for funding reduction.